Briefings & Intelligence
With pressure mounting on Santos Farc backs off
Colombia’s armed conflict is not just being fought on the ground but in the head. And in the intense psychological war conducted over the course of the last week the guerrillas blinked first. The Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) announced that the unilateral ceasefire it suspended on 22 May would be revived for one month on 20 July. This in the wake of a plea from the ‘guarantor nations’ of the peace process for both sides to take urgent measures to de-escalate the conflict after President Juan Manuel Santos and the head of the government negotiating team in Cuba, Humberto de la Calle, stressed that Farc aggression over the last month had brought the prospect of the abandonment of the process closer than at any stage since it began in October 2012. Santos complemented his rhetoric with action, replacing the military high command with some of the most successful operational figures in the armed forces.
Briefings & Intelligence
More symbolism than substance as Rousseff travels to US
“From now on, I hope that next time President Obama wants to know what is going on in Brazil, he will call me directly.” President Dilma Rousseff’s answer to the inevitable question about US-Brazil relations in the wake of spying revelations raised a smile from the US president. Almost two years have passed since Rousseff cancelled a trip to Washington following reports that the US had spied on her personal emails. But whereas in 2013, Rousseff could afford such a gesture, her position is much weaker now. From the US perspective, the relationship with Brazil is far from essential, though some of the praise lavished on Rousseff and her country suggest that Washington wants to ensure Brazil does not wander too far into China’s sphere of influence. Though the two presidents inked a number of agreements, most significantly on climate change, the real value of the visit was that it happened at all.
Briefings & Intelligence
‘Zannini effect’ causes blue dollar to spike
To no-one’s surprise, Florencio Randazzo, Argentina’s interior and transport minister, dropped his bid for the presidency on 19 June. Randazzo’s decision, taken after a long meeting with President Cristina Fernández, means that the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FpV) can rally around a single candidate ahead of the October election: Daniel Scioli, the current governor of Buenos Aires province. Randazzo’s withdrawal was all but confirmed when Carlos Zannini, one of Fernández’s closest allies, accepted Scioli’s invitation to be his running mate. With the ultra-kirchnerista Zannini on the ticket, the price of the blue dollar soared as analysts anticipated a continuation of the government’s currency control policies in the event of a Scioli victory.
Briefings & Intelligence
Ecuador’s Correa feels the heat over inheritance tax
Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa has challenged the political opposition to call a recall referendum on his mandate after more than a week of protests rather than resort to violence to oust him. This is a stock response from Correa: raise the stakes; categorise legitimate protests as a cover for a coup conspiracy; and divert attention away from one specific issue of discord to his whole record in government. Correa was sufficiently concerned, however, to suspend temporarily the issue which provided the catalyst for the protests: a bill to introduce a graded inheritance tax.
Briefings & Intelligence
Mexico’s elections reaffirm PRI’s sway but shake status quo
Virtually all of Mexico’s political parties were able to dress up the 7 June federal legislative, state and municipal midterm elections as a victory, although the left-wing Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) required most spin to do so. Happiest will be the radical left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena), which shattered the PRD’s hegemony in the Distrito Federal (DF); and President Enrique Peña Nieto as the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and its allies retained control of the federal lower chamber of deputies. The PRI, however, suffered some humbling defeats at state level, foremost among which was the governorship of Nuevo León which fell to Jaime ‘El Bronco’ Rodríguez, the first victory ever by an independent candidate and one of several black eyes sustained by the political establishment.
Briefings & Intelligence
Fifa scandal exposes extent of regional corruption
It is hard to think of a US action more popular in Latin America than the Department of Justice’s arraignment of top-ranking officials from the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (Fifa), the governing body of world football, last week. Of the 14 men named as defendants in the US-led investigation all bar two are citizens of Latin America and the Caribbean. Nowhere is the grim satisfaction among the region’s legion of football fans greater than in the two powerhouses of world football: Brazil and Argentina. Domestic probes into corruption in the game in both countries have failed to result in any of the game’s top-ranking administrators facing charges for the widespread corruption afflicting the sport here. That may now be about to change, with public tolerance of corruption in the region at an all-time low.
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