Briefings & Intelligence
Pope Francis and Giuliani vie for influence in El Salvador
Pope Francis is at it again. The Holy See played an integral part in brokering the accord between the US and Cuba to take a historic step towards renewing diplomatic relations. Now it could be poised to take a decisive role in El Salvador. The Pope has instructed the Roman Catholic Church in the country to set aside religious differences and embrace the ‘Pastoral initiative for life and peace’ (Ipaz) of El Salvador’s Protestant churches to hold a dialogue with rival mara gangs. With El Salvador close to reclaiming the unwanted tag of the world’s most violent country from Honduras, mara gangs revealed a unilateral truce in late January after Ipaz leaders visited imprisoned leaders. Meanwhile, pursuing a decidedly different approach, El Salvador’s private sector has hired the tough-talking former mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani, as a security consultant to come up with a plan for reducing violence in the country.
Canning Papers
A political era is ending in Argentina. Over three consecutive four-year presidential terms since 2003, the country has been governed by the Kirchners: starting with the late Néstor Kirchner, who was president in 2003-2007 and was then succeeded then by his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, in 2009 (Néstor died in 2010). During that time, the economy experienced some impressively high growth rates, but since the ending of the commodities boom and the intensification of the government’s interventionist and heterodox economic policies, things have got worse. In particular, Argentina has been dogged in recent years by disputes with its foreign creditors, along with US dollar scarcities, high domestic inflation and stagnant economic growth. General elections are due to be held in October 2015, and this paper looks forward to what might be in store.
Briefings & Intelligence
Mexico’s Peña Nieto might be losing his mojo
Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto has bowed to political pressure to remove a close ally, Alfredo Castillo, as federal commissioner for the western state of Michoacán. He took the decision ostensibly for the sake of democracy: with elections coming up on 7 June for state governor and congress as well as 113 mayoral contests, opposition politicians were publicly raising questions about Castillo’s excessive influence. But there is a sense that mounting conflict of interest scandals are emasculating Peña Nieto, whose governance has transmuted from strong and pro-active, dictating the agenda with myriad reform initiatives to modernise Mexico, to weak and reactive; no longer shaping events but being shaped by them.
Briefings & Intelligence
Nisman’s death rocks Argentina’s Fernández
“It is very distressing to live in a country where any hypothesis, however absurd it may seem, is found plausible.” Speaking at a rally convened to demand justice of the authorities in their investigation into the sudden death of special prosecutor Alberto Nisman, Leonardo Jmelnitzky, the head of the Amia Jewish association, articulated clearly the febrile atmosphere of rumour and conspiracy theory that has pervaded Argentine public discourse since the discovery of Nisman’s body in the bathroom of his apartment on Sunday evening.
Briefings & Intelligence
Lighting the fuse on Venezuelan powder keg
Henrique Capriles Radonski, the governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda and figurehead of the moderate opposition, called for street protests this week against the government of President Nicolás Maduro. While Capriles stressed that he was not calling violent political demonstra- tions, it risks comparison with the protests organised last February by Leopoldo López, which landed him in jail. At the time Capriles distanced himself from López saying that the timing of his protests was wrong and would not win the hearts and minds of Venezuelans. He now appears to have calculated that they could be won through their stomachs. Acute shortages of food and other basic products have led to vast queues forming outside supermarkets in Caracas and cities in other states.
Briefings & Intelligence
Cigars and mojitos - opening up US-Cuba trade
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