Since late April, widespread commentary in mainstream media has alluded to the possibility that, by some measures, China may overtake the United States (US) to become the world’s largest national economy before the end of 2014. Whether or not this happens, it remains true that developments in China have considerably greater potential to affect economies in Latin America than they used to. The title of this paper, ‘China and Latin America, 2014-2016: Three Dimensions’ reflects several aspects of the relationship between the country and the region that we consider important.
Introduction
First, the relationship between a large and complex emerging market on one side of the world, and a large and complex (but very different) region on the other has many facets. It is not sensible to consider just one of these facets in isolation from others. Second, the changes that are taking place will not con- veniently occur within the confines of one calendar year. In our analysis, we have tried to take a slightly longer view. Our conclusions should be as valid through 2015 as they are through 2014. Finally, the process of cause and effect is assumed to flow from China to Latin America.