This is something of a bellwether year in the Latin America and Caribbean regions. In countries with presidential and general elections, the outcomes will signal not only the national but also the regional mood toward governments that have been in place throughout the oil-price shock and the drop in commodity prices. Countries such as Mexico and Bolivia, meanwhile, will use their polls this year to take the temperature of the electorate ahead of their presidential and general elections in the next few years. The standout contest will take place in Peru where huge uncertainty surrounds April’s presidential and congressional elections.
Peru Leads The Way In 2016
Peruvians are accustomed to an outsider coming to the fore late in the presidential race and there are indications that 2016 could conform to this trend. No single candidate has captured the public imagination, still less picked up the momentum to carry them to the presidency. The clear frontrunner is Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of the authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), but her lead is far from unassailable. Keiko came close in 2011 and she is firmly placed to make a second round, which is by far the most likely scenario. But she has barely budged from 30% of the vote and she has a high rejection rate. Crossing the 50% threshold will be a major challenge. The big battle is for the second berth in the run-off as whoever makes it should win the majority of the support currently enjoyed by a host of minority candidates. César Acuña, a former president of the northern region of La Libertad, is emerging as the strongest contender for this position.